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Trader Warns Jackson Hole’s “Hesitantly Optimistic” Chatter Will Be “Nothing But Buying Time”

Hawkish, dovish, hawkish, dovish? As many market participants suspect, this week’s Jackson Hole ‘retreat’ wil be a nothing-burger with perhaps a side-dish of temporary volatility as machines quibble over various words in headlines. Former fund manager Richard Breslow warns not to expect much

Via Bloomberg,

Expect to Hear Jackson Hole Is Great in August

At some level, I hope I’m wrong. This week would end up being far more interesting if we do indeed get some juicy policy announcement out of one, or, why not be greedy, two, of the big kahunas headlining Jackson Hole. But it’s unlikely and markets may well end up having to figure out what they want to do between now and autumn on their own.

As much as these folks love to talk, they probably have little intention of communicating.

What do we know?

 

The Fed doesn’t pre-commit. But has essentially done so on a taper announcement and commencement in the fall. Their best laid plans call for as benign a start to this process as possible. Whether Chair Yellen mentions it again is largely irrelevant. They want to do it and think they can. And they won’t if something untoward happens.

 

If her base case is transitory inflation and one more hike this year, this is neutral not hawkish. Or I should say uninformative. Their first priority is balance sheet and rates after. A hike requires waiting to see inflation numbers tick up. We’re going to know nothing new on this subject before the Aug. 31 release, at the earliest, of the PCE deflator.

 

President Draghi’s notion on timing of a taper has to be influenced by the German election. And that comes after the ECB’s September meeting. The Chancellor’s re-election is widely assumed. But peace and harmony within the Zone will be the order of the day until it is over. Periphery spreads are still tight but have begun to show signs of widening out. Another 10 basis points wider in the BTP to bund spread and things begin to look interesting.

 

The ECB has a much harder task than the Fed in pulling back stimulus due to the structure of the PSPP and use of the capital key. Confidently dismissing the process as harmless for markets is a luxury they can’t indulge in.

Of course, if the market “misinterprets” anything (translation – sells off), there are numerous officials willing and able to step into the breach and save the world with some clarifying “that’s not what he/she meant” remark. As Breslow concludes, we have all got rather used to it…

Unfortunately, there are the speeches and then the chit chats. With all of the winks, spins and low-downs we’ve come to expect. So, no matter what is said from the podium, expect to be treated to no end of assurances as to what they really meant.

 

In truth, they’re buying time, hesitantly optimistic and have a plan that sounds great in theory.

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Poland Growth Accelerates In Q3 On Strong Industrial Output & Retail Sales

Poland’s economic growth accelerated at the start of the third quarter, underpinned by strong expansions in both industrial production and retail sales in July, Liam Carson, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The annual retail sales growth acce…

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Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with the Bank & Trust, S.S.B.

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with the Bank & Trust, S.S.B.
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EUR/USD Bull-Flag Formation Vulnerable to Dovish Draghi

Fresh rhetoric from ECB President Mario Draghi may heavily influence the near-term outlook for the EUR/USD as the QE program is set to expire in December.The post EUR/USD Bull-Flag Formation Vulnerable to Dovish Draghi appeared first on Forex news – Bi…

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الأسهم الأمريكية ترتفع في مستهل التداولات

ارتفعت مؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية عند افتتاح تداولات الثلاثاء مدعومة بالأداء الإيجابي لقطاع الطاقة بالتزامن مع انتعاش أسعار النفط. وارتفع مؤشر “داو جونز” الصناعي 106 نقاط إلى 21810 نقاط في تمام الساعة 04:45 مساءً بتوقيت مكة المكرمة، كما ارتفع مؤشر “ناسداك” (+ 46 نقطة) إلى 6259 نقطة، في حين ارتفع مؤشر “S&P 500” الأوسع نطاقا (+ […]

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تراجع الاسترليني بسبب عدم وضوح رؤية بريطانيا لما بعد “بريكست”

سجل الجنيه الإسترليني أكبر تراجع أسبوعي له أمام الدولار وسط استمرار حالة عدم الاستقرار بشأن المدة التي ستستغرقها المملكة المتحدة لصياغة اتفاقيات تجارية مع الاتحاد الأوروبي بعد “بريكست”. ووصل الجنيه الإسترليني، الذي انخفض مقابل معظم نظرائه من مجموعة الـ 10، إلى أدنى مستوى له في 10 أشهر مقابل اليورو. وتعلن رئيس الوزراء “تيريزا ماي” اليوم […]

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الصين تحذر أمريكا قبيل زيارة وزير الدفاع التايواني

حذرت الصين الولايات المتحدة اليوم من إجراء أي اتصالات عسكرية مع “تايبيه” قبيل زيارة قصيرة لوزير الدفاع التايواني لواشنطن في طريقه إلى حلفاءه بأمريكا الوسطى. وتعد الولايات المتحدة المصدر الرئيسي لأنظمة التسليح التايوانية وزودتها واشنطن بأحدث التجهيزات والمعدات التي يمكن بواسطتها التعامل مع حرب حديثة حال نشوب صراعات مع الصين التي تعتبرها ملكها. وسوف يتوقف […]

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Canadian Dollar Rises As Core Retail Sales Growth Exceeds Forecast

The Canadian dollar climbed against its major opponents in the European session on Tuesday, as the nation’s core retail sales outpaced expectations in June, supporting hopes for a possible rate hike by the Bank of Canada again this year.

Data from St…

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Dollar Little Changed After U.S. House Price Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index for June has been released at 9.00 am ET Tuesday. The greenback changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The greenback was worth 1.1758 against the euro, 109.32 against the yen, 0.9…

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